Regional model weighting
The forecast you see is a weighted consensus of 4 weather models, and the weights change by region — because each model is demonstrably stronger in certain mountains. ICON (DWD, Germany) gets the highest weight in the Alps and Europe; GEM (Canadian Meteorological Centre) is boosted across North America; GFS (NOAA) gets a home-turf bonus in the USA; and ECMWF carries the strongest global baseline weight everywhere. Example — Europe: ICON ×1.35, ECMWF ×1.25, GFS ×0.85, GEM ×0.75.
How we calculate Snow Softness %
Each day gets a softness score (higher = softer, better for skiing). We calculate hardpack risk internally, then invert it: Softness = 100 - Hardpack Risk.
Confidence % is calculated day-by-day across all 4 models, weighted by snow volume and by each model's regional skill. Days with more predicted snow have more impact on the confidence score, and disagreement from a model that is weak in that region hurts confidence less. Models agreeing on a 20cm powder day matters more than agreeing on a 0cm dry day.
0. Snow base check — If accumulated snow on the ground is <3cm, softness drops to 5% (nothing to ski on). Below 10cm base, stays around 10-25%.
1. Fresh snow × temperature — Fresh snow boosts softness, but only if it's cold enough to stay fluffy. At <-2°C you get the full softness bonus. At 0-3°C only 40% counts (wet/heavy snow). Above 6°C it melts on contact — zero softness benefit.
2. Freeze-thaw cycles — When the temperature crosses 0°C (above during day, below at night), the surface melts and refreezes into a hard crust. The wider the swing (e.g. +4° to -3°), the harder the surface.
3. Days since last snowfall × temperature — Dry days only cause hardpack if there's melt-refreeze happening. With freeze-thaw: +7% per dry day. Near 0°C but constant: +3%. Deep cold (<-3°C constant): only +1% — cold preserves snow texture, it's the thawing that compacts.
4. Snowmaking vs temperature — Snowmaking is context-dependent: on cold dry days (<0°C), cannons add snow volume and keep surfaces fresher (up to -8% hardpack). But when temps rise above 0°C, artificial snow is denser than natural and compacts into hardpack much faster (up to +18%). The worst combo is freeze-thaw + heavy snowmaking — gets an extra penalty.
5. Extreme cold — Very cold temps (<-8°C) without fresh snow create an icy surface crust, adding +10%. Very warm temps (>6°C) create slushy conditions instead of hardpack.
Reading the score: 75%+ Soft/Powder — 55-74% Good softness — 35-54% Firming up — <35% Hard/Icy